Super Lig
This week’s forecasts.
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson. Probabilities only — the model is beaten by bookmaker closing odds and picks the correct result about 54% of the time. Not betting advice.
Price a fixture
Next fixtures
| Kick-off | Home | Away | H | D | A | xG | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 06 Nov 17:00 | Gaziantep | Kasimpasa | 41% | 29% | 29% | 1.4–1.1 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 10:30 | Eyupspor | Kocaelispor | 40% | 35% | 25% | 1.1–0.8 | 0-0 |
| Sat 07 Nov 13:00 | Samsunspor | Konyaspor | 52% | 26% | 22% | 1.7–1.0 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 16:00 | Goztep | Buyuksehyr | 39% | 28% | 32% | 1.4–1.3 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 16:00 | Galatasaray | Amedspor | 72% | 18% | 9% | 2.4–0.7 | 2-0 |
| Sun 08 Nov 10:30 | Rizespor | Erzurumspor | 58% | 26% | 16% | 1.7–0.8 | 1-0 |
| Sun 08 Nov 13:00 | Corum | Fenerbahce | 16% | 21% | 63% | 1.0–2.2 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 15:30 | Alanyaspor | Trabzonspor | 35% | 29% | 36% | 1.3–1.3 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 18:00 | Besiktas | Genclerbirligi | 59% | 25% | 16% | 1.8–0.9 | 1-1 |
Galatasaray v Amedspor: Amedspor has thin history (2.9 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Rizespor v Erzurumspor: Erzurumspor has thin history (2.9 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Corum v Fenerbahce: Corum has thin history (2.9 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Fitted team strengths
| Team | Attack | Defence | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 1.831 | 0.807 | 2.270 |
| Fenerbahce | 1.856 | 0.936 | 1.984 |
| Besiktas | 1.370 | 0.889 | 1.541 |
| Buyuksehyr | 1.345 | 0.902 | 1.491 |
| Trabzonspor | 1.362 | 0.962 | 1.416 |
| Goztep | 1.113 | 0.990 | 1.124 |
| Samsunspor | 1.166 | 1.038 | 1.123 |
| Alanyaspor | 1.013 | 0.984 | 1.030 |
| Rizespor | 1.114 | 1.144 | 0.973 |
| Genclerbirligi | 0.892 | 0.950 | 0.939 |
| Kasimpasa | 0.986 | 1.066 | 0.925 |
| Konyaspor | 0.993 | 1.141 | 0.870 |
| Eyupspor | 0.885 | 1.030 | 0.859 |
| Amedspor | 0.881 | 1.030 | 0.855 |
| Kocaelispor | 0.720 | 0.858 | 0.839 |
| Gaziantep | 0.973 | 1.196 | 0.813 |
| Corum | 0.850 | 1.289 | 0.660 |
| Erzurumspor | 0.692 | 1.301 | 0.532 |
Attack above 1 scores more than the division average; defence below 1 concedes less.
1777 matches, 2021-08-13 to 2026-08-31 ·
32 teams ·
home advantage 1.328 ·
decay half-life 198.0 days ·
xG model on, proxy (98% coverage)
Promoted this season: Amedspor, Corum, Erzurumspor — shrunk toward a promoted-team
prior (attack 0.803, defence 1.039),
because promoted sides are markedly weaker than average and treating them as average is the
biggest source of early-season error.