La Liga
This week’s forecasts.
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson. Probabilities only — the model is beaten by bookmaker closing odds and picks the correct result about 54% of the time. Not betting advice.
Price a fixture
Next fixtures
| Kick-off | Home | Away | H | D | A | xG | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 06 Nov 20:00 | Sevilla | Alaves | 43% | 27% | 31% | 1.4–1.1 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 13:00 | Malaga | Santander | 40% | 27% | 33% | 1.3–1.2 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 15:15 | Espanol | La Coruna | 53% | 25% | 22% | 1.6–0.9 | 1-0 |
| Sat 07 Nov 17:30 | Osasuna | Ath Bilbao | 46% | 27% | 27% | 1.4–1.0 | 1-0 |
| Sat 07 Nov 20:00 | Valencia | Real Madrid | 24% | 24% | 53% | 1.1–1.7 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 13:00 | Elche | Betis | 37% | 24% | 39% | 1.5–1.5 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 15:15 | Sociedad | Vallecano | 48% | 25% | 27% | 1.6–1.1 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 17:30 | Celta | Levante | 52% | 24% | 25% | 1.7–1.1 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 17:30 | Villarreal | Getafe | 62% | 23% | 15% | 1.7–0.7 | 1-0 |
| Sun 08 Nov 20:00 | Ath Madrid | Barcelona | 33% | 22% | 45% | 1.5–1.8 | 1-1 |
Malaga v Santander: Malaga has thin history (5.4 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Malaga v Santander: Santander has thin history (5.5 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Espanol v La Coruna: La Coruna has thin history (5.3 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Fitted team strengths
| Team | Attack | Defence | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 2.039 | 0.751 | 2.717 |
| Real Madrid | 1.678 | 0.734 | 2.285 |
| Ath Madrid | 1.375 | 0.875 | 1.572 |
| Villarreal | 1.495 | 0.990 | 1.510 |
| Betis | 1.231 | 0.997 | 1.234 |
| Celta | 1.043 | 0.963 | 1.083 |
| Osasuna | 0.970 | 0.955 | 1.016 |
| Alaves | 1.008 | 0.997 | 1.011 |
| Ath Bilbao | 1.007 | 1.001 | 1.007 |
| Sociedad | 1.122 | 1.117 | 1.004 |
| Vallecano | 0.937 | 0.956 | 0.980 |
| Levante | 1.098 | 1.152 | 0.953 |
| Valencia | 0.951 | 1.031 | 0.922 |
| Espanol | 0.959 | 1.041 | 0.921 |
| Sevilla | 1.034 | 1.137 | 0.910 |
| Getafe | 0.688 | 0.789 | 0.871 |
| Elche | 1.039 | 1.228 | 0.846 |
| La Coruna | 0.907 | 1.123 | 0.808 |
| Santander | 1.005 | 1.268 | 0.793 |
| Malaga | 0.790 | 1.230 | 0.642 |
Attack above 1 scores more than the division average; defence below 1 concedes less.
4274 matches, 2021-08-13 to 2026-09-03 ·
55 teams ·
home advantage 1.415 ·
decay half-life 198.0 days ·
xG model on, real (80% coverage)
Promoted this season: La Coruna, Malaga, Santander — shrunk toward a promoted-team
prior (attack 0.796, defence 1.224),
because promoted sides are markedly weaker than average and treating them as average is the
biggest source of early-season error.