Scottish Premiership
This week’s forecasts.
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson. Probabilities only — the model is beaten by bookmaker closing odds and picks the correct result about 54% of the time. Not betting advice.
Price a fixture
Next fixtures
| Kick-off | Home | Away | H | D | A | xG | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 07 Nov 15:00 | Dundee United | Motherwell | 30% | 27% | 43% | 1.2–1.5 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 15:00 | St Johnstone | Dundee | 42% | 27% | 30% | 1.4–1.1 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 17:45 | Aberdeen | Hibernian | 29% | 28% | 43% | 1.1–1.4 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 20:00 | St Mirren | Rangers | 23% | 25% | 52% | 1.1–1.7 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 15:00 | Hearts | Falkirk | 63% | 22% | 15% | 1.9–0.8 | 1-0 |
| Sun 08 Nov 16:00 | Celtic | Kilmarnock | 83% | 11% | 6% | 3.3–0.9 | 3-0 |
Fitted team strengths
| Team | Attack | Defence | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 1.684 | 0.814 | 2.069 |
| Rangers | 1.570 | 0.957 | 1.641 |
| Hearts | 1.308 | 0.806 | 1.624 |
| Motherwell | 1.185 | 0.914 | 1.297 |
| Hibernian | 1.191 | 0.977 | 1.219 |
| Falkirk | 0.980 | 1.209 | 0.811 |
| Dundee | 0.944 | 1.229 | 0.768 |
| St Mirren | 0.796 | 1.087 | 0.733 |
| Dundee United | 0.915 | 1.254 | 0.730 |
| St Johnstone | 0.889 | 1.235 | 0.720 |
| Aberdeen | 0.811 | 1.167 | 0.695 |
| Kilmarnock | 1.006 | 1.549 | 0.649 |
Attack above 1 scores more than the division average; defence below 1 concedes less.
2085 matches, 2021-07-31 to 2026-09-03 ·
27 teams ·
home advantage 1.310 ·
decay half-life 198.0 days ·
xG model on, proxy (100% coverage)
Promoted this season: St Johnstone — shrunk toward a promoted-team
prior (attack 0.82, defence 1.192),
because promoted sides are markedly weaker than average and treating them as average is the
biggest source of early-season error.