Primeira Liga
This week’s forecasts.
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson. Probabilities only — the model is beaten by bookmaker closing odds and picks the correct result about 54% of the time. Not betting advice.
Price a fixture
Next fixtures
| Kick-off | Home | Away | H | D | A | xG | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 06 Nov 20:45 | Famalicao | Arouca | 48% | 25% | 28% | 1.5–1.0 | 1-0 |
| Sat 07 Nov 15:30 | Nacional | Academico Viseu | 49% | 26% | 25% | 1.4–0.9 | 1-0 |
| Sat 07 Nov 18:00 | Alverca | Casa Pia | 51% | 25% | 24% | 1.5–0.9 | 1-0 |
| Sat 07 Nov 20:30 | Sp Lisbon | Moreirense | 81% | 12% | 7% | 2.9–0.7 | 2-0 |
| Sun 08 Nov 15:30 | Estoril | Maritimo | 50% | 24% | 26% | 1.5–1.0 | 1-0 |
| Sun 08 Nov 15:30 | Santa Clara | Gil Vicente | 39% | 29% | 32% | 1.1–0.9 | 1-0 |
| Sun 08 Nov 18:00 | Guimaraes | Porto | 21% | 25% | 54% | 0.8–1.5 | 0-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 20:30 | Estrela | Benfica | 17% | 18% | 65% | 1.0–2.2 | 1-2 |
| Sun 08 Nov 20:30 | Rio Ave | Sp Braga | 24% | 23% | 53% | 1.0–1.7 | 0-1 |
Nacional v Academico Viseu: Academico Viseu has thin history (3.8 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Estoril v Maritimo: Maritimo has thin history (4.3 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Fitted team strengths
| Team | Attack | Defence | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Lisbon | 2.086 | 0.764 | 2.729 |
| Porto | 1.502 | 0.563 | 2.667 |
| Benfica | 1.900 | 0.736 | 2.581 |
| Sp Braga | 1.439 | 0.895 | 1.609 |
| Famalicao | 0.943 | 0.806 | 1.169 |
| Gil Vicente | 0.994 | 0.932 | 1.067 |
| Arouca | 1.204 | 1.209 | 0.996 |
| Santa Clara | 0.881 | 0.907 | 0.971 |
| Guimaraes | 0.971 | 1.051 | 0.924 |
| Estoril | 1.145 | 1.287 | 0.890 |
| Nacional | 0.933 | 1.102 | 0.847 |
| Estrela | 0.996 | 1.266 | 0.787 |
| Maritimo | 0.856 | 1.099 | 0.779 |
| Alverca | 0.893 | 1.174 | 0.760 |
| Moreirense | 0.876 | 1.177 | 0.744 |
| Academico Viseu | 0.804 | 1.168 | 0.688 |
| Rio Ave | 0.839 | 1.236 | 0.679 |
| Casa Pia | 0.709 | 1.331 | 0.533 |
Attack above 1 scores more than the division average; defence below 1 concedes less.
1563 matches, 2021-08-06 to 2026-08-31 ·
27 teams ·
home advantage 1.253 ·
decay half-life 198.0 days ·
xG model on, proxy (100% coverage)
Promoted this season: Academico Viseu, Maritimo — shrunk toward a promoted-team
prior (attack 0.751, defence 1.032),
because promoted sides are markedly weaker than average and treating them as average is the
biggest source of early-season error.