Primeira Liga
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson forecasts. Probabilities only — this model is beaten by bookmaker closing odds and picks the correct result about 54% of the time. Not betting advice.
Price a fixture
Next fixtures
| Kick-off | Home | Away | H | D | A | xG | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 07 Sep 19:15 | Estoril | Arouca | 43% | 22% | 35% | 1.6–1.4 | 1-1 |
| Wed 09 Sep 19:45 | Moreirense | Benfica | 16% | 19% | 65% | 0.9–2.1 | 0-1 |
| Thu 10 Sep 19:15 | Estrela | Sp Braga | 27% | 23% | 51% | 1.1–1.7 | 0-1 |
| Sat 12 Sep 23:00 | Benfica | Gil Vicente | 69% | 18% | 14% | 2.1–0.8 | 2-0 |
| Sat 12 Sep 23:00 | Rio Ave | Estrela | 41% | 25% | 34% | 1.4–1.2 | 1-1 |
| Sat 12 Sep 23:00 | Nacional | Alverca | 46% | 26% | 28% | 1.4–1.0 | 1-0 |
| Sat 12 Sep 23:00 | Moreirense | Maritimo | 44% | 27% | 29% | 1.3–1.0 | 1-0 |
| Sat 12 Sep 23:00 | Arouca | Santa Clara | 45% | 25% | 30% | 1.4–1.1 | 1-0 |
| Sat 12 Sep 23:00 | Casa Pia | Porto | 13% | 20% | 67% | 0.6–1.8 | 0-1 |
| Sat 12 Sep 23:00 | Sp Braga | Estoril | 63% | 19% | 18% | 2.1–1.0 | 1-0 |
| Sat 12 Sep 23:00 | Academico Viseu | Guimaraes | 34% | 27% | 38% | 1.1–1.1 | 0-1 |
| Sat 12 Sep 23:00 | Famalicao | Sp Lisbon | 23% | 22% | 54% | 1.0–1.7 | 0-1 |
Moreirense v Maritimo: Maritimo has thin history (4.3 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Academico Viseu v Guimaraes: Academico Viseu has thin history (3.8 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Fitted team strengths
| Team | Attack | Defence | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Lisbon | 2.086 | 0.764 | 2.729 |
| Porto | 1.502 | 0.563 | 2.667 |
| Benfica | 1.900 | 0.736 | 2.581 |
| Sp Braga | 1.439 | 0.895 | 1.609 |
| Famalicao | 0.943 | 0.806 | 1.169 |
| Gil Vicente | 0.994 | 0.932 | 1.067 |
| Arouca | 1.204 | 1.209 | 0.996 |
| Santa Clara | 0.881 | 0.907 | 0.971 |
| Guimaraes | 0.971 | 1.051 | 0.924 |
| Estoril | 1.145 | 1.287 | 0.890 |
| Nacional | 0.933 | 1.102 | 0.847 |
| Estrela | 0.996 | 1.266 | 0.787 |
| Maritimo | 0.856 | 1.099 | 0.779 |
| Alverca | 0.893 | 1.174 | 0.760 |
| Moreirense | 0.876 | 1.177 | 0.744 |
| Academico Viseu | 0.804 | 1.168 | 0.688 |
| Rio Ave | 0.839 | 1.236 | 0.679 |
| Casa Pia | 0.709 | 1.331 | 0.533 |
Attack above 1 scores more than the division average; defence below 1 concedes less.
1563 matches, 2021-08-06 to 2026-08-31 ·
27 teams ·
home advantage 1.253 ·
decay half-life 198.0 days ·
xG model on (100% coverage)
Promoted this season: Academico Viseu, Maritimo — shrunk toward a promoted-team
prior (attack 0.751, defence 1.032),
because promoted sides are markedly weaker than average and treating them as average is the
biggest source of early-season error.