Eredivisie
This week’s forecasts.
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson. Probabilities only — the model is beaten by bookmaker closing odds and picks the correct result about 54% of the time. Not betting advice.
Price a fixture
Next fixtures
| Kick-off | Home | Away | H | D | A | xG | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 06 Nov 19:00 | Willem II | Zwolle | 33% | 29% | 38% | 1.3–1.4 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 15:30 | For Sittard | Telstar | 46% | 26% | 28% | 1.7–1.3 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 17:45 | Den Haag | Sparta Rotterdam | 28% | 30% | 42% | 1.1–1.4 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 20:00 | Excelsior | Go Ahead Eagles | 42% | 27% | 32% | 1.6–1.4 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 11:15 | Heerenveen | Feyenoord | 31% | 26% | 42% | 1.4–1.7 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 13:30 | Twente | Ajax | 43% | 28% | 29% | 1.6–1.3 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 15:45 | Cambuur | PSV Eindhoven | 4% | 9% | 87% | 0.9–3.8 | 0-3 |
| Sun 08 Nov 15:45 | AZ Alkmaar | Groningen | 55% | 24% | 20% | 2.0–1.1 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 19:00 | Utrecht | Nijmegen | 37% | 26% | 37% | 1.6–1.6 | 1-1 |
Willem II v Zwolle: Willem II has thin history (7.2 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam: Den Haag has thin history (3.9 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Cambuur v PSV Eindhoven: Cambuur has thin history (4.3 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Fitted team strengths
| Team | Attack | Defence | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 2.140 | 1.023 | 2.092 |
| Ajax | 1.343 | 0.881 | 1.524 |
| Feyenoord | 1.425 | 1.000 | 1.425 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 1.325 | 1.002 | 1.322 |
| Twente | 1.256 | 0.955 | 1.316 |
| Nijmegen | 1.413 | 1.139 | 1.240 |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 1.223 | 1.260 | 0.970 |
| Utrecht | 1.151 | 1.201 | 0.958 |
| Groningen | 1.071 | 1.182 | 0.906 |
| Heerenveen | 1.065 | 1.189 | 0.896 |
| Excelsior | 1.023 | 1.166 | 0.877 |
| Telstar | 1.014 | 1.293 | 0.784 |
| For Sittard | 0.980 | 1.311 | 0.748 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 0.916 | 1.259 | 0.728 |
| Zwolle | 0.910 | 1.440 | 0.632 |
| Den Haag | 0.699 | 1.428 | 0.489 |
| Willem II | 0.702 | 1.564 | 0.449 |
| Cambuur | 0.678 | 2.054 | 0.330 |
Attack above 1 scores more than the division average; defence below 1 concedes less.
1563 matches, 2021-08-13 to 2026-08-30 ·
25 teams ·
home advantage 1.301 ·
decay half-life 198.0 days ·
xG model on, proxy (100% coverage)
Promoted this season: Cambuur, Den Haag, Willem II — shrunk toward a promoted-team
prior (attack 0.725, defence 1.165),
because promoted sides are markedly weaker than average and treating them as average is the
biggest source of early-season error.