Serie A

This week’s forecasts.

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson. Probabilities only — the model is beaten by bookmaker closing odds and picks the correct result about 54% of the time. Not betting advice.

Price a fixture

Next fixtures

Kick-off	Home	Away	H	D	A	xG	Score
Fri 06 Nov 19:45	Venezia	Udinese	31%	26%	43%	1.1–1.4	1-1
Sat 07 Nov 14:00	Cagliari	Frosinone	40%	27%	33%	1.2–1.1	1-1
Sat 07 Nov 14:00	Torino	Lecce	48%	26%	26%	1.4–1.0	1-0
Sat 07 Nov 17:00	Parma	Bologna	26%	29%	45%	0.8–1.2	0-1
Sat 07 Nov 19:45	Roma	Sassuolo	66%	19%	15%	2.1–0.9	2-0
Sun 08 Nov 11:30	Napoli	Lazio	49%	27%	24%	1.4–0.9	1-0
Sun 08 Nov 14:00	Monza	Atalanta	19%	22%	59%	0.9–1.9	0-1
Sun 08 Nov 14:00	Genoa	Milan	27%	26%	47%	1.0–1.4	0-1
Sun 08 Nov 17:00	Inter	Como	53%	23%	25%	1.8–1.1	1-1
Sun 08 Nov 19:45	Fiorentina	Juventus	22%	24%	54%	0.9–1.6	0-1

Cagliari v Frosinone: Frosinone has thin history (5.5 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence

Fitted team strengths

Team	Attack	Defence	Net
Inter	1.935	0.809	2.392
Roma	1.560	0.744	2.097
Como	1.438	0.777	1.851
Juventus	1.336	0.758	1.763
Napoli	1.328	0.808	1.643
Atalanta	1.308	0.814	1.608
Milan	1.271	0.875	1.453
Lazio	1.044	0.897	1.164
Bologna	1.103	1.009	1.093
Udinese	1.084	1.066	1.017
Sassuolo	1.100	1.148	0.958
Frosinone	1.004	1.058	0.949
Fiorentina	1.019	1.132	0.900
Genoa	0.901	1.066	0.845
Cagliari	0.931	1.108	0.840
Torino	1.018	1.262	0.807
Parma	0.730	1.041	0.702
Venezia	0.805	1.236	0.651
Lecce	0.733	1.129	0.649
Monza	0.907	1.454	0.624

Attack above 1 scores more than the division average; defence below 1 concedes less.

3840 matches, 2021-08-20 to 2026-08-31 · 57 teams · home advantage 1.158 · decay half-life 198.0 days · xG model on, real (80% coverage)
Promoted this season: Frosinone, Monza, Venezia — shrunk toward a promoted-team prior (attack 0.822, defence 1.198), because promoted sides are markedly weaker than average and treating them as average is the biggest source of early-season error.