Serie A
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson forecasts. Probabilities only — this model is beaten by bookmaker closing odds and picks the correct result about 54% of the time. Not betting advice.
Price a fixture
Next fixtures
| Kick-off | Home | Away | H | D | A | xG | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 07 Sep 16:30 | Cagliari | Lecce | 46% | 28% | 26% | 1.3–0.9 | 1-0 |
| Mon 07 Sep 18:45 | Udinese | Lazio | 36% | 28% | 36% | 1.1–1.1 | 1-1 |
| Fri 11 Sep 18:45 | Venezia | Fiorentina | 35% | 27% | 38% | 1.2–1.2 | 1-1 |
| Sat 12 Sep 13:00 | Genoa | Frosinone | 38% | 28% | 34% | 1.2–1.1 | 1-1 |
| Sat 12 Sep 16:00 | Lazio | Milan | 38% | 28% | 35% | 1.2–1.1 | 1-1 |
| Sat 12 Sep 18:45 | Atalanta | Cagliari | 56% | 24% | 20% | 1.6–0.9 | 1-0 |
| Sun 13 Sep 13:00 | Lecce | Monza | 41% | 28% | 32% | 1.2–1.0 | 1-0 |
| Sun 13 Sep 16:00 | Napoli | Bologna | 51% | 26% | 23% | 1.5–0.9 | 1-0 |
| Sun 13 Sep 18:45 | Sassuolo | Juventus | 26% | 25% | 49% | 1.1–1.6 | 1-1 |
| Mon 14 Sep 16:30 | Como | Parma | 62% | 23% | 15% | 1.7–0.7 | 1-0 |
| Mon 14 Sep 16:30 | Torino | Roma | 22% | 23% | 56% | 1.0–1.8 | 0-1 |
| Mon 14 Sep 18:45 | Inter | Udinese | 66% | 19% | 15% | 2.2–0.9 | 2-0 |
Genoa v Frosinone: Frosinone has thin history (5.5 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Fitted team strengths
| Team | Attack | Defence | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 1.935 | 0.809 | 2.392 |
| Roma | 1.560 | 0.744 | 2.097 |
| Como | 1.438 | 0.777 | 1.851 |
| Juventus | 1.336 | 0.758 | 1.763 |
| Napoli | 1.328 | 0.808 | 1.643 |
| Atalanta | 1.308 | 0.814 | 1.608 |
| Milan | 1.271 | 0.875 | 1.453 |
| Lazio | 1.044 | 0.897 | 1.164 |
| Bologna | 1.103 | 1.009 | 1.093 |
| Udinese | 1.084 | 1.066 | 1.017 |
| Sassuolo | 1.100 | 1.148 | 0.958 |
| Frosinone | 1.004 | 1.058 | 0.949 |
| Fiorentina | 1.019 | 1.132 | 0.900 |
| Genoa | 0.901 | 1.066 | 0.845 |
| Cagliari | 0.931 | 1.108 | 0.840 |
| Torino | 1.018 | 1.262 | 0.807 |
| Parma | 0.730 | 1.041 | 0.702 |
| Venezia | 0.805 | 1.236 | 0.651 |
| Lecce | 0.733 | 1.129 | 0.649 |
| Monza | 0.907 | 1.454 | 0.624 |
Attack above 1 scores more than the division average; defence below 1 concedes less.
3840 matches, 2021-08-20 to 2026-08-31 ·
57 teams ·
home advantage 1.158 ·
decay half-life 198.0 days ·
xG model on (100% coverage)
Promoted this season: Frosinone, Monza, Venezia — shrunk toward a promoted-team
prior (attack 0.822, defence 1.198),
because promoted sides are markedly weaker than average and treating them as average is the
biggest source of early-season error.