Super League Greece
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson forecasts. Probabilities only — this model is beaten by bookmaker closing odds and picks the correct result about 54% of the time. Not betting advice.
Price a fixture
Fitted team strengths
| Team | Attack | Defence | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiakos | 1.339 | 0.484 | 2.764 |
| AEK | 1.576 | 0.578 | 2.725 |
| PAOK | 1.742 | 0.714 | 2.440 |
| Panathinaikos | 1.344 | 0.738 | 1.822 |
| Aris | 1.062 | 0.848 | 1.252 |
| Atromitos | 1.095 | 0.990 | 1.106 |
| Levadeiakos | 1.319 | 1.217 | 1.084 |
| OFI Crete | 1.114 | 1.237 | 0.900 |
| Panetolikos | 0.837 | 1.053 | 0.795 |
| Kifisia | 0.879 | 1.129 | 0.779 |
| Asteras Tripolis | 0.846 | 1.126 | 0.752 |
| Larisa | 0.816 | 1.237 | 0.660 |
| Volos NFC | 0.819 | 1.291 | 0.634 |
| Panserraikos | 0.721 | 1.501 | 0.480 |
Attack above 1 scores more than the division average; defence below 1 concedes less.
1202 matches, 2021-09-11 to 2026-08-31 ·
21 teams ·
home advantage 1.299 ·
decay half-life 198.0 days ·
xG model on (100% coverage)
Promoted this season: Iraklis, Kalamata — shrunk toward a promoted-team
prior (attack 0.799, defence 1.173),
because promoted sides are markedly weaker than average and treating them as average is the
biggest source of early-season error.