Ligue 1
This week’s forecasts.
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson. Probabilities only — the model is beaten by bookmaker closing odds and picks the correct result about 54% of the time. Not betting advice.
Price a fixture
Next fixtures
| Kick-off | Home | Away | H | D | A | xG | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 06 Nov 19:45 | Toulouse | Strasbourg | 42% | 27% | 31% | 1.5–1.3 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 16:15 | Auxerre | Paris FC | 34% | 28% | 37% | 1.3–1.3 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 19:45 | Paris SG | Troyes | 76% | 16% | 7% | 2.4–0.7 | 2-0 |
| Sun 08 Nov 14:00 | Rennes | Lille | 38% | 27% | 36% | 1.5–1.4 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 16:15 | Angers | Nice | 37% | 30% | 33% | 1.2–1.1 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 16:15 | Brest | Lyon | 34% | 26% | 40% | 1.5–1.6 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 16:15 | Le Havre | Lorient | 36% | 30% | 34% | 1.2–1.1 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 16:15 | Le Mans | Monaco | 25% | 25% | 51% | 1.2–1.8 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 19:45 | Lens | Marseille | 52% | 23% | 25% | 2.0–1.3 | 1-1 |
Paris SG v Troyes: Troyes has thin history (4.4 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Le Mans v Monaco: Le Mans has thin history (3.4 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Fitted team strengths
| Team | Attack | Defence | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris SG | 1.723 | 0.815 | 2.115 |
| Lens | 1.441 | 0.946 | 1.523 |
| Lille | 1.151 | 0.783 | 1.470 |
| Marseille | 1.389 | 1.046 | 1.328 |
| Lyon | 1.272 | 0.987 | 1.290 |
| Monaco | 1.377 | 1.080 | 1.275 |
| Rennes | 1.382 | 1.179 | 1.172 |
| Paris FC | 1.106 | 0.977 | 1.132 |
| Strasbourg | 1.268 | 1.150 | 1.102 |
| Lorient | 1.049 | 1.111 | 0.944 |
| Toulouse | 0.998 | 1.079 | 0.925 |
| Brest | 1.073 | 1.280 | 0.839 |
| Auxerre | 0.957 | 1.176 | 0.814 |
| Troyes | 0.829 | 1.051 | 0.789 |
| Nice | 0.903 | 1.194 | 0.757 |
| Le Havre | 0.799 | 1.073 | 0.745 |
| Le Mans | 0.884 | 1.260 | 0.702 |
| Angers | 0.753 | 1.141 | 0.660 |
Attack above 1 scores more than the division average; defence below 1 concedes less.
3483 matches, 2021-07-24 to 2026-09-03 ·
47 teams ·
home advantage 1.282 ·
decay half-life 198.0 days ·
xG model on, real (77% coverage)
Promoted this season: Le Mans, Troyes — shrunk toward a promoted-team
prior (attack 0.777, defence 1.195),
because promoted sides are markedly weaker than average and treating them as average is the
biggest source of early-season error.