Ligue 1

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson forecasts. Probabilities only — this model is beaten by bookmaker closing odds and picks the correct result about 54% of the time. Not betting advice.

Price a fixture

Next fixtures

Kick-off	Home	Away	H	D	A	xG	Score
Fri 11 Sep 18:45	Rennes	Marseille	41%	24%	35%	1.7–1.6	1-1
Sat 12 Sep 15:15	Strasbourg	Monaco	41%	25%	34%	1.7–1.5	1-1
Sat 12 Sep 18:45	Auxerre	Nice	44%	28%	28%	1.5–1.1	1-1
Sat 12 Sep 18:45	Le Havre	Angers	45%	30%	25%	1.3–0.9	1-1
Sat 12 Sep 18:45	Lorient	Toulouse	43%	28%	28%	1.4–1.1	1-1
Sat 12 Sep 18:45	Paris FC	Lyon	40%	28%	32%	1.4–1.2	1-1
Sun 13 Sep 13:00	Lille	Troyes	58%	27%	15%	1.6–0.7	1-0
Sun 13 Sep 15:15	Le Mans	Lens	23%	26%	51%	1.1–1.7	1-1
Sun 13 Sep 18:45	Brest	Paris SG	20%	23%	57%	1.1–2.0	1-1

Lille v Troyes: Troyes has thin history (4.4 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence

Le Mans v Lens: Le Mans has thin history (3.4 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence

Fitted team strengths

Team	Attack	Defence	Net
Paris SG	1.723	0.815	2.115
Lens	1.441	0.946	1.523
Lille	1.151	0.783	1.470
Marseille	1.389	1.046	1.328
Lyon	1.272	0.987	1.290
Monaco	1.377	1.080	1.275
Rennes	1.382	1.179	1.172
Paris FC	1.106	0.977	1.132
Strasbourg	1.268	1.150	1.102
Lorient	1.049	1.111	0.944
Toulouse	0.998	1.079	0.925
Brest	1.073	1.280	0.839
Auxerre	0.957	1.176	0.814
Troyes	0.829	1.051	0.789
Nice	0.903	1.194	0.757
Le Havre	0.799	1.073	0.745
Le Mans	0.884	1.260	0.702
Angers	0.753	1.141	0.660

Attack above 1 scores more than the division average; defence below 1 concedes less.

3483 matches, 2021-07-24 to 2026-09-03 · 47 teams · home advantage 1.282 · decay half-life 198.0 days · xG model on (100% coverage)
Promoted this season: Le Mans, Troyes — shrunk toward a promoted-team prior (attack 0.777, defence 1.195), because promoted sides are markedly weaker than average and treating them as average is the biggest source of early-season error.