Bundesliga
This week’s forecasts.
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson. Probabilities only — the model is beaten by bookmaker closing odds and picks the correct result about 54% of the time. Not betting advice.
Price a fixture
Next fixtures
| Kick-off | Home | Away | H | D | A | xG | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 06 Nov 19:30 | Hamburg | M'gladbach | 44% | 27% | 28% | 1.5–1.1 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 14:30 | Dortmund | Elversberg | 72% | 18% | 10% | 2.3–0.7 | 2-0 |
| Sat 07 Nov 14:30 | RB Leipzig | Augsburg | 57% | 23% | 20% | 2.0–1.1 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 14:30 | Paderborn | Ein Frankfurt | 35% | 27% | 37% | 1.3–1.4 | 1-1 |
| Sat 07 Nov 14:30 | Mainz | Bayern Munich | 19% | 19% | 61% | 1.3–2.4 | 1-2 |
| Sat 07 Nov 17:30 | Stuttgart | Werder Bremen | 69% | 18% | 13% | 2.5–1.0 | 2-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 14:30 | FC Koln | Leverkusen | 28% | 24% | 48% | 1.4–1.8 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 16:30 | Freiburg | Union Berlin | 54% | 24% | 22% | 1.8–1.1 | 1-1 |
| Sun 08 Nov 18:30 | Hoffenheim | Schalke 04 | 67% | 19% | 14% | 2.3–0.9 | 2-0 |
Dortmund v Elversberg: Elversberg has thin history (3.1 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Paderborn v Ein Frankfurt: Paderborn has thin history (3.1 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Hoffenheim v Schalke 04: Schalke 04 has thin history (3.4 effective matches) — strength is shrunk toward baseline and this price is low-confidence
Fitted team strengths
| Team | Attack | Defence | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 2.290 | 0.892 | 2.567 |
| Dortmund | 1.417 | 0.840 | 1.686 |
| Leverkusen | 1.404 | 1.047 | 1.341 |
| Stuttgart | 1.438 | 1.133 | 1.269 |
| RB Leipzig | 1.315 | 1.036 | 1.269 |
| Hoffenheim | 1.238 | 1.292 | 0.958 |
| Ein Frankfurt | 1.254 | 1.315 | 0.953 |
| Freiburg | 1.107 | 1.212 | 0.913 |
| Mainz | 0.945 | 1.052 | 0.898 |
| M'gladbach | 0.934 | 1.176 | 0.794 |
| Augsburg | 0.946 | 1.201 | 0.788 |
| Elversberg | 0.911 | 1.193 | 0.763 |
| Hamburg | 0.871 | 1.147 | 0.759 |
| FC Koln | 1.018 | 1.358 | 0.750 |
| Union Berlin | 0.936 | 1.260 | 0.743 |
| Paderborn | 0.768 | 1.105 | 0.695 |
| Werder Bremen | 0.846 | 1.285 | 0.659 |
| Schalke 04 | 0.737 | 1.275 | 0.578 |
Attack above 1 scores more than the division average; defence below 1 concedes less.
3096 matches, 2021-07-23 to 2026-08-30 ·
45 teams ·
home advantage 1.359 ·
decay half-life 198.0 days ·
xG model on, real (65% coverage)
Promoted this season: Elversberg, Paderborn, Schalke 04 — shrunk toward a promoted-team
prior (attack 0.765, defence 1.185),
because promoted sides are markedly weaker than average and treating them as average is the
biggest source of early-season error.