Belgian Pro League
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson forecasts. Probabilities only — this model is beaten by bookmaker closing odds and picks the correct result about 54% of the time. Not betting advice.
Price a fixture
Fitted team strengths
| Team | Attack | Defence | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise | 1.379 | 0.578 | 2.385 |
| Club Brugge | 1.763 | 0.856 | 2.059 |
| Genk | 1.264 | 1.110 | 1.138 |
| St Truiden | 1.235 | 1.110 | 1.113 |
| Charleroi | 1.047 | 0.964 | 1.086 |
| Waregem | 1.185 | 1.111 | 1.067 |
| Gent | 1.019 | 1.059 | 0.963 |
| Anderlecht | 1.111 | 1.176 | 0.945 |
| Standard | 0.927 | 1.010 | 0.917 |
| Antwerp | 1.003 | 1.159 | 0.866 |
| Cercle Brugge | 1.103 | 1.325 | 0.832 |
| Mechelen | 1.023 | 1.342 | 0.763 |
| Westerlo | 1.061 | 1.427 | 0.744 |
| RAAL La Louviere | 0.811 | 1.280 | 0.633 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 0.774 | 1.259 | 0.615 |
| Dender | 0.800 | 1.429 | 0.560 |
Attack above 1 scores more than the division average; defence below 1 concedes less.
1583 matches, 2021-07-23 to 2026-09-03 ·
24 teams ·
home advantage 1.233 ·
decay half-life 198.0 days ·
xG model on (100% coverage)
Promoted this season: Beveren, Kortrijk, Lommel SK — shrunk toward a promoted-team
prior (attack 0.911, defence 1.228),
because promoted sides are markedly weaker than average and treating them as average is the
biggest source of early-season error.